On Bernoulli Experiments with Imprecise Prior Probabilities
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Computation with imprecise probabilities
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
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This special issue contains a selection of articles from the First International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities (ISIPTA). The symposium took place in Ghent, Belgium, during the month of June of 1999, under the organization of Gert de Cooman, Peter Walley, Sera®n Moral and Fabio Cozman. The success of the symposium led to the decision to hold a second one, to happen in Cornell, USA, in 200...
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We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1 defined in terms of previsions for a set of random variables that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of...
متن کاملThe effect of prior probabilities on quantification and propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets
This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties. The UQ methodology is adapted from the information-theoretic method previously presented by the authors (Zhang and Shields, 2018) to a fully Bayesian construction that enables greater flexib...
متن کاملImprecise Probabilities
Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Statistician
سال: 1994
ISSN: 0039-0526
DOI: 10.2307/2348940